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Top-Down Vs. Bottom-Up Investing: Which Is Best for You?

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    Do you know the difference between top-down and bottom-up investing? Choosing the right strategy is an important decision for securing your future, and making the wrong decisions can be harmful to your investment portfolio. Let’s look at what top-down and bottom-up mean, the pros and cons of the two approaches, and how to determine which is more suitable for your investment goals.

    What is Top-Down Investing?

    A top-down analysis involves making decisions based on the state of the economy and various markets. A top-down investor might start with a broad, birds-eye type view that includes crucial factors. This is also known as the macro or macroeconomic approach, as a top-down investor is focused on broad factors and issues such as national and world events.

    Interest Rates

    Current interest rates, which are set by the United States Federal Reserve, represent a key economic indicator that impact many areas. A few things to keep in mind:

    • When interest rates are cut, individuals and businesses can more easily find loans to start new businesses and purchase real estate.
    • Lower rates can stimulate stocks, including bank stocks and those investing in real estate.
    • Rising rates are often associated with higher unemployment and slower economic growth.
    • When the Fed cuts rates, it can motivate spending on large purchases such as cars.


    Paying attention to interest rates is thus extremely important to investment decisions and ensuring you are maximizing your portfolio.

    Market Performance

    Interest rates are only one factor that influences the stock market and others such as bonds, commodities, and currencies. An investor might also analyze oil prices and other important spaces. With a top-down approach, you don’t spend much time with investment analysis of an individual company. Rather, you look at the big picture and make decisions based on current news, issues, and trends. In addition to broad economic indicators, an investor may look at the performance of particular industries, such as oil, real estate, retail, or healthcare.

    Geography

    You can invest in different parts of the world based on current conditions. You might look at not only the American stocks, for example, but also in Europe, Asia, and other regions. Top-down investors like to identify emerging markets so they can benefit from rising prices and pull out when prices are likely to fall.

    Pros and Cons of the Top-down Strategy

    There are advantages as well as drawbacks to top-down strategies.

    Pros

    • You learn more about economic policies and indicators, making you a more sophisticated investor.
    • The process helps you identify opportunities in industries and regions you might not have otherwise considered.

    Cons

    • The approach can make an investor overlook important differences between companies and investments. Not every business flourishes when certain industries are doing well, for example.
    • Markets don’t always behave predictably. Indicators may suggest a certain result but this isn’t always accurate.
    • The space requires a great deal of study. There are numerous and complex macro factors that are constantly changing.


    Your best bet is to speak with a wealth manager to get advice on an industry or sector before deciding which top-down investment is right for you.

    What is Bottom-Up Investing?

    A bottom-up analysis is less concerned with the overall economy and market conditions. Instead, the focus is on individual companies, stocks, funds, and other investments. Bottom-up investors hone in on the fundamental qualities of a business, stock, or investment opportunity. This approach requires investors to pay attention to micro factors.

    Financial Evaluation

    Evaluating the value and financial health of a company includes an analysis of:

    • Cash-flow
    • Revenue, growth, prices of stocks, dividend yield, and projected future earnings.
    • Price-to-earnings ratio (PE). The PE is a crucial metric that measures the current share price to earnings-per-share.


    Working with analysts to understand a company’s funds will help ensure you are looking into the right opportunities.

    Ownership and Management Team

    The track record of key figures in a company such as the founder, CEO, and others in leadership positions is important in understanding its current status or where it might go in the future. Do they have experience building other successful businesses? Does the company have a clear vision, or is it being pulled in different directions? All of this impacts whether a company will thrive or whither in an industry or sector.

    Products and Competition

    This includes the reputation of the company’s products and services. You also want to consider market share and market dominance. How are they performing relative to the competition?

    Person working on top-down investment

    Pros and Cons of the Bottom-up Strategy

    There are also pros and cons to the bottom-up investment approach.

    Pros

    • The process helps you identify companies that are outperforming the market. An outstanding company can grow even when general conditions are unfavorable.
    • It forces you to look at every aspect of an investment and spot potential flaws.
    • It is good for short-term opportunities. Companies may perform well even when their long-term outlook is limited.

    Cons

    • Bottom-up investors may overlook important macroeconomic factors that can impact a company.
    • It can be risky. Trying to identify individual companies that will grow or stocks that will rise in one sector is tricky compared to looking at larger trends.

    How to Choose the Right Investing Approach

    Most investors have a style that favors a top-down or bottom-up bias. Let’s look at the characteristics that make you a better candidate for one or the other investment strategy.

    Qualities of Top-Down Investors

    If the following applies to you, consider talking to your money manager or wealth manager about a top-down approach to your investment strategy.

    • You have a strong interest in world conditions, economics, and maybe politics.
    • You favor a conservative, low-risk approach.
    • You have limited investment experience.

    Qualities of Bottom-Up Investors

    Here are some indications you should consider a bottom-up approach.

    • You have little interest in spending time on sites such as Investopedia studying the economy or market trends.
    • You have a certain degree of risk tolerance.
    • You’re an experienced investor who’s comfortable with short-term investments.

    Maintain a Balanced Approach

    While it’s useful to look at the different investment styles, you don’t have to invest in a style that’s 100% top- or bottom-focused. A few facts:

    • Most investment experts recommend a mixture of approaches.
    • Even if you have a mainly top-down approach, you still want to look at the fundamentals before investing in a stock or other investment.
    • Conversely, investors with  a bottom-up approach should still consider broad economic indicators.
    • Whichever style you favor, it’s good to maintain a certain balance when making any investment decision.

    Whatever your preferred style of investing, getting expert advice can help you identify the most suitable investment opportunities for your portfolio. For example, you might find that a commingled fund, which pools assets from multiple investors, helps you minimize risk while diversifying your portfolio.

    Contact Bogart Wealth today to speak with an expert about any  investing questions you might have.

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